Sometimes, the margins of victory can be paper thin — and in a state like Bihar, where allegiances and alliances shift like monsoon clouds, that couldn’t be more true. Every election here is a reminder that even a few hundred votes can redraw political maps.As the 2025 Assembly elections draw closer, attention is turning to constituencies that saw the closest contests last time. In seats like Hilsa, Barbigha, and Dehri, the margins were under 500 votes — outcomes that could have flipped with just a few booths. The JD(U) and RJD had both won and lost such razor-edge battles, and with alliances realigned since then, each of these constituencies is now back in play.

Hilsa

Perhaps the most dramatic contest of 2020, Hilsa saw JD(U)’s Krishnamurari Sharan, also known as Prem Mukhiya, edge out RJD’s Atri Muni (Shakti Singh Yadav) by just 12 votes — both polling around 37.35% of the total vote. The seat, part of Nalanda district, has historically swung between the two parties and is expected to be one of the most hard-fought battles this time as well. With Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and RJD once again on opposite sides, Hilsa could become a litmus test for how voters view Nitish’s return to the NDA.

Barbigha

In Barbigha, JD(U)’s Sudarshan Kumar barely managed to stay ahead of Congress’s Gajanand Shahi by just 113 votes. Both polled around 33% each, showing how split the electorate was. The Congress had performed strongly here in 2020 despite limited organisational strength in the area. The party’s persistence in contesting the seat again, despite friction with RJD over seat-sharing, underlines its continued importance to the INDIA bloc.

Ramgarh

RJD’s Sudhakar Singh clinched Ramgarh by a margin of just 189 votes over BSP’s Ambika Singh, while BJP’s Ashok Kumar Singh was only 2,800 votes behind them. With three major parties within 2% of each other, the 2020 result was one of the tightest three-way finishes in Bihar. RJD hopes to consolidate anti-BJP votes this time, but the BSP’s influence among Dalit voters could again make it unpredictable.

Matihani

In Matihani, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) created a surprise when its candidate Raj Kumar Singh narrowly defeated JD(U)’s Narendra Kumar Singh by only 333 votes, while CPI(M)’s Rajendra Prasad Singh was just another 400 votes behind. With three candidates each securing nearly 29% of the vote, Matihani remains one of Bihar’s most unpredictable battlegrounds. The left’s continued presence here means even small shifts in alliances could change the outcome dramatically.

Bhorey

JD(U)’s Sunil Kumar won Bhorey by just 462 votes over CPI(ML)’s Jitendra Paswan, with both polling above 40%. The Left’s strong showing reflected CPI(ML)’s growing rural base, particularly among Dalit and agrarian voters. With CPI(ML) now a formal part of the INDIA bloc, Bhorey could see a direct face-off between NDA and the Left once again.

Dehri

Another cliffhanger unfolded in Dehri, where RJD’s Phate Bahadur Singh beat BJP’s Satyanarayan Singh by just 464 votes, both polling over 41%. The constituency has often mirrored the broader state trend — a reason why both alliances are expected to deploy senior leaders here this year.

Bachhwara

In Bachhwara, BJP’s Surendra Mehata edged out CPI’s Abdhesh Kumar Rai by only 484 votes. The contest was a straight Left-versus-BJP duel, with both commanding nearly 30% each. The CPI’s local base here, built over decades, remains intact. Interestingly, CPI is again pitted against the Congress in some seats this time, exposing fissures within the INDIA bloc even as they attempt coordination.

Chakai

Chakai produced one of 2020’s biggest upsets when independent candidate Sumit Kumar Singh defeated RJD’s Savitri Devi by just 581 votes. Singh has since joined the NDA and could benefit from the combined BJP–JD(U) machinery. However, with RJD determined to reclaim the seat, Chakai is once again poised for a close battle — especially with JMM also eyeing influence in the region.

Kurhani

Kurhani’s 2020 contest between RJD’s Anil Kumar Sahni and BJP’s Kedar Prasad Gupta ended with just 712 votes separating the two. RJD polled 40.23% to BJP’s 39.86%. Kurhani, located in Muzaffarpur district, has changed hands multiple times and was even the site of a bypoll in 2022. Its outcome this year could reflect whether Tejashwi Yadav’s message of youth and jobs resonates against the NDA’s stability pitch.

Bakhri

In Bakhri, CPI’s Suryakant Paswan defeated BJP’s Ramshankar Paswan by 777 votes, both getting more than 43% of the vote. As one of Bihar’s few remaining Left bastions, Bakhri will be closely watched to see if CPI can retain its grip amid the NDA’s push into Scheduled Caste–reserved seats.

The bigger picture

As the NDA and INDIA bloc prepare for the 2025 polls — with voting scheduled for November 6 and 11 and results on November 14 — these ten constituencies exemplify Bihar’s deep political fragmentation. With Nitish Kumar back in the NDA and Tejashwi Yadav leading a divided opposition, margins as thin as those from 2020 could once again decide the fate of Bihar’s 243-seat Assembly.