But he’ll likely be less of a bully now

Has US supreme court killed Trump’s tariffs, or merely hit pause? It’s too soon to say. Trump’s first reaction, per Reuters, was that the ruling was a “disgrace”, and he’d have to do something about the courts. Which isn’t out of character, but did he really expect to win this round? Even with a 6-3 conservative majority, the court during Nov’s hearings had been sceptical of his administration’s “warlike emergency” justification for tariffs. One of Trump’s own appointee judges had asked whether Spain and France indeed posed a threat to America’s defence and industrial base. In Friday’s judgment, chief justice John Roberts said as much: “United States, after all, is not at war with every nation in the world.”

But Trump is. That’s why the tariff saga won’t be over till it’s over. Using a half-century-old law – International Emergency Economic Powers Act – he’s roiled international trade through the first year of his term. And most analysts don’t expect him to change course. As Brett Kavanaugh, a dissenting judge, wrote, this ruling won’t keep Trump “from imposing most, if not all, of these same sorts of tariffs under other statutory authorities.” In Jan, Trump’s top trade negotiator Jamieson Greer had also said, if the admin lost its case, it would “start the next day” to reestablish tariffs.

A return to the Feb 2025 baseline then seems unlikely, especially because it involves refunding up to $175bn collected in tariffs. However, Trump won’t have the same sweeping powers under other measures at his disposal. He’ll probably have to conduct tariff negotiations with greater civility now. Meanwhile, we have more uncertainty trade-wise, not less. Months of negotiations and hard-won trade deals – including India’s – seem to have been in vain. Unless you count the majesty of law – SCOTUS cutting POTUS down to size – as a reward.

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