India can’t protect itself better from a future oil shock unless commercial vehicle fleet is electrified  

Yet another Gulf war should electrify the speed and scale at which India cuts back on its dependence on imported oil and gas, supply of which, in this new world order of uncertainty and turbulence, is subject to far too many moving parts – sanctions to tariffs to bombs. The move away is no longer a climate goal alone, but a matter of energy security too. One sector that can decarbonise at the earliest is transport. Goals on electrification of transport are serious. India targets EV sales shares of 30% in private cars, 70% in commercial vehicles, 40% in buses, and 80% in two- and three-wheelers by 2030.

But uneven policy and funding frameworks make for a bumpy road. IEEFA estimates the ₹2.2L cr invested between 2020 and 2025 in the electric vehicle ecosystem, (OEMs, subsidies & incentives) and spending on public charging infra was barely 18% of the ₹12.5L cr needed to meet the 2030 goal. Where the remaining ₹10L cr will come from is iffy. Moreover, while electric 3-wheelers attracted the largest share of investments (around 78%), IEEFA recorded a shift in investment toward electric four-wheelers – luxury electric cars. There is little for public transit, and no incentives for long-haul commercial EVs or fleet electrification.

But, as has been repeatedly noted, govt subsidies are not the problem. Implementation bottlenecks are. Worryingly, there seems to be little policy thinking on this. If oil price shocks are to be absorbed, a move to electrified transport, especially at fleet-level commercial vehicles and heavy trucks, must be a priority. Medium and heavy truck networks form the core of freight movement – but high-power charging along freight corridors and logistics hubs is sparse. Building a public charging network, for starters, is essential infra for transit electrification, and towards minimising shocks of the next Gulf war. 

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