The Iran war-linked energy crisis is different from previous shocks. Oil and gas markets are not simply rising, they are repricing violently, around disruption risk. On March 20, Brent settled at $112.19 per barrel, its highest since July 2022, after roughly 440mn barrels were removed from global supply, over 22 days. By March 24, after a sharp selloff on hopes of de-escalation, Brent had rebounded to about $101 per barrel, because markets reassessed the risk of prolonged disruption.

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