Trump unfreezes Iran assets & lifts sanctions. Iran lifts Hormuz blockade

In an interview to this newspaper, former US special representative for North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, had said the art of diplomacy is getting your opponent to agree to a deal because it is in their interest. Applying the same logic to the Iran war, both Washington and Tehran have ample reasons to bring the conflict to a negotiated end. Trump goes into midterm polls later this year, and he certainly wouldn’t want a hangover of the war till then – that would be political suicide. Iran, despite all its bravado, has been badly hit by this conflict, and economic strains are showing. There’s runaway inflation – more than 54% – and growing shortages of essentials. And then, of course, there’s the global economic pain caused by the Iranian blockade of Hormuz, and US counter-blockade of Iran ports.

So, it’s welcome that Trump on Monday decided to hold off resuming attacks on Iran, after Tehran sent a revised proposal to end the war. But again, Iran is asking for the moon – reparations, ending hostilities on all fronts, exit of US forces from areas close to Iran, lifting of sanctions, release of frozen assets, and end to the US blockade. Plus, Iran wants de facto, if not de jure, sovereignty over Hormuz, potentially instituting a permanent toll system. That’s completely unacceptable, and against maritime law. It also sets a dangerous precedent – if Iran is allowed to control a crucial international waterway, through which a fifth of global oil and natural gas flowed in peacetime, what stops others from following suit? China could similarly seize South China Sea. Russia, the Arctic.

Hence, the only reasonable deal for both sides would be US lifting sanctions on Iran and unfreezing Iranian assets – even partially – in exchange for Tehran lifting its blockade on Hormuz, unconditionally. Both sides can then set a timeframe – from 30 to 60 days – to negotiate on the Iran nuclear issue. If Tehran reneges on the latter, or plays truant, snapback provisions kick in to reimpose sanctions on Iran. Understandably, both Trump and Iran want to save face. But they shouldn’t pop their own jugular in the process.

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