India’s power grid is buckling under the summer heat. Air conditioners (ACs) are fast becoming the single largest driver of peak electricity demand — contributing as much as 70 GW, or 25%. ACs are power guzzlers, each consuming 100-150 times the electricity of an LED bulb. 

 And the scale of what’s coming is staggering. India adds 10 to 15 million ACs every year, about two to three times the level of just a few years ago. As temperatures increase and incomes grow, another 130 to 150 million units will likely be installed over the next decade alone. Without urgent policy action, ACs could contribute as much as 120 GW to peak electricity demand by 2030 and 180 GW by 2035 — nearly one-third of India’s projected evening peak. To put that in perspective, the electricity demand from this single appliance would exceed the entire peak demand of Japan. 

 So what can be done? India must continue building firm power capacity — particularly energy storage that banks the afternoon’s cheap solar power and dispatches it in the evening. But there is a complementary resource that remains badly underutilised: making ACs more efficient. Every unit of demand avoided is a unit India never has to generate, transmit, or pay for. 

This is what makes the Government of India’s recent decision to revise Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) for room ACs in 2028 an important milestone. 

The new standards effectively increase the minimum efficiency required for ACs sold in the Indian market by 25%. It is a meaningful step. By 2035, it could shave 10 GW from peak demand. But set against 180 GW of projected AC load, it is a start, not a solution. India imports many of its ACs and components from China, where efficiency standards are stricter. As a result, several models unqualified in China have been on the Indian market. This revision is a step towards addressing that gap. 

 The next MEPS revision falls due in 2030, and India should sustain this momentum: beginning in 2030, the minimum standard could be set at today’s five-star level (ISEER 5.3), and by 2033 raised to match the most efficient AC models currently available for sale in the Indian market (ISEER 6.7). 

The results would be transformative. Strengthened standards could cut peak demand by 10 GW by 2030 and 45 GW by 2035 — the equivalent of about 100 large power plants — helping India avoid up to ₹8 lakh crore ($80 billion) in new generation and grid infrastructure costs. Consumers would benefit directly: even after accounting for the incremental cost of more efficient units, net electricity bill savings could be up to Rs 2.5 lakh crore ($25 billion) by 2035. 

 A key concern is whether stricter standards raise prices. Historical data suggests otherwise. Evidence from India, Japan, and South Korea consistently shows that as efficiency standards rise, prices tend to fall in real terms, as manufacturers scale up production and compete. In India, between 2007 and 2023, AC efficiency improved by roughly 60% while inflation-adjusted prices nearly halved. 

On manufacturer readiness, the evidence is equally encouraging. More than 1,000 AC models — representing over 15% of available options and a comparable share of market sales — already exceed the current five-star level. Leading manufacturers, including Blue Star, Daikin, and Lloyd, are offering super-efficient models above ISEER 6.0 at competitive prices. The technology exists, and the supply chains are largely in place. What remains is the policy ambition to match. 

While policymakers deliberate the post-2028 trajectory, consumers face a practical choice today. If you are buying an AC this summer, do not settle for the minimum standard. A no-frills five-star unit typically costs Rs 6,000–16,000 more upfront than a two- or three-star equivalent and pays for itself within two to three years through lower electricity bills, with lifetime net savings of over Rs 13,000 per unit. Once you have it, use it wisely: keep the thermostat at 24°C or above, and run a ceiling fan alongside for better cooling performance. 

There is also a vicious cycle at work. ACs do not just consume electricity; they exhaust heat outdoors, raising temperatures in surrounding areas. In India’s dense cities, night temperatures in urban centres are already 4–6°C higher than nearby outskirts, partly because concrete and glass absorb heat all day and release it after dark, and partly because thousands of ACs are doing the same. Hotter nights mean more ACs running harder and longer, which means more heat exhausted outside. The worst part: this heat is felt most in the neighbourhoods least likely to own an AC. 

The path forward 

The 2028 MEPS revision shows that India’s standards-and-labelling system can deliver ambitious policy at scale. But the work is far from done. The immediate priority now is a long-term MEPS roadmap through 2033 — giving manufacturers the certainty to invest in advanced compressors, heat exchangers, and control systems, and ensuring every new AC sold in India makes the grid more reliable and affordable, not less. 

AC efficiency is the most powerful tool available to ease grid stress, but not the only one. Cool roofs, better building design, and urban tree cover reduce the need for cooling. 

Yet none of these can substitute for the central ask. India’s fastest-growing appliance is putting the grid under strain. With the right policy, it does not have to. 

Co-authors: Amol Phadke, faculty member at the University of California, Berkeley; Jose Dominguez, researcher at the India Energy and Climate Center, University of California, Berkeley. 

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