A few days ago, Pavaratty panchayat in Thrissur became an unlikely mirror of Kerala’s deepening labour crisis. The local body convened a conciliation meeting between migrant workers and construction contractors following a dispute over wages. The contractors alleged that workers were demanding exorbitant rates, and they had a point about the cause, if not the complaint.

As large numbers of migrants have left for home due to the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, polls in Assam and West Bengal and Bakrid, those who stayed back found their bargaining power had grown considerably.

The meeting ended with a consensus on wage rates. Though panchayat president Anto Lijo publicly described them as ‘minimum wages,’ they were, in effect, maximum wages, a ceiling, not a floor. He candidly admitted instructing employers not to pay beyond these rates, warning that doing so could push wages to permanently unaffordable levels. The irony was hard to miss: When migrant workers were being paid well below what native workers earned, no such meetings were called.

This is not an isolated incident. Similar disruptions, triggered by the sudden dip in migrant labour, have rippled across the state and across sectors. Construction and hospitality have been hit hardest, but the strain is felt by individual employers as well. Unrest over wage demands has been reported from Perinthalmanna, Angamaly, Perumbavoor, Muvattupuzha, Thiruvananthapuram, Palakkad, and Kozhikode.

“Migrant workers have achieved a critical mass in Kerala, says K Ravi Raman, member of the outgoing planning board. “Their bargaining capacity has increased drastically. They can now control several economic operations at a scale that no political formation would be able to match.”

Estimates of the total number of migrant workers in Kerala range widely, from eight lakh to 40 lakh, though most experts place the figure between 30 and 35 lakh. The actual number could be higher if daily wage seekers, those who wait at towns and cities for work each morning, are also counted.

According to Benoy Peter of the Centre for Migration and Inclusive Development, Kochi, workers from West Bengal and Assam account for roughly 72% of Kerala’s migrant workforce. This is a relatively recent shift, until 1996, it was workers from Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh who dominated.

How many have failed to return after their recent trips home remains unclear. Estimates range from 30 to 50%. “We don’t know the exact reasons,” said K Satheesh Kumar, president of the Builders Association of India. “Some attribute it to political uncertainties related to SIR in West Bengal and Assam.” Other factors include the onset of the farming season in home states, and the monsoon-driven lull in construction activity in Kerala.

Most experts, however, expect the majority of workers to return. Kerala offers the highest wages for migrant workers anywhere in the Indian subcontinent, and workers face relatively little discrimination on grounds of religion or caste. Ravi Raman goes further, describing Kerala as a ‘welfare magnet state’ for the initiatives it has launched for this workforce.

Employers are less certain. “We are exploring alternative sources,” said Rajesh Kumar, former Thrissur district president of BAI. “Initially, we will look at other northern and northeastern states, and if that doesn’t work, possibly neighbouring countries like Sri Lanka.”

What has made migrant workers so indispensable is a combination of lower wages, low absenteeism, and a willingness to take up hard labour that local workers routinely turn down. But Benoy Peter cautions that this workforce operates under significant strain, long hours, hazardous conditions, congested living quarters, and limited access to healthcare and education.

New labour minister Bindu Krishna acknowledged the need for stronger support. “The state is working on expanded welfare programmes for migrant workers,” she said, adding that some measures are likely to feature in the upcoming budget.

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