Today, we stand at a crossroads where the geography of wealth meets the geometry of power. When we discuss the geopolitical economy of the Global South, one term frequently anchors the conversation: Resource Nationalism. It is the assertion of state sovereignty over natural wealth. And there is perhaps no more dramatic, or cautionary, case study in the modern era than Venezuela. When we look at Venezuela in 2026, we see a mirror of what happens when sovereignty is decoupled from sustainability. In theory, it is the ultimate exercise of national agency. In practice, as Venezuela shows us, it is a pendulum that can swing toward progress or toward catastrophe. We have watched it swing with devastating force in Venezuela. As Venezuela begins the painful process of dismantling the laws that once promised liberation, African nations are writing their own ‘Mining Codes’ for the energy transition. The question we must ask is: Is Africa following the same map to a different destination?  In Africa, the stakes are different but the script is familiar.

We are talking about the minerals of the future—lithium, cobalt, and manganese. The “resource curse” becomes a convenient explanation for everything—from weak public services to conflict and corruption. But the real story is simpler and sharper: resources don’t fail countries; governance fails people. Oil, copper, cobalt, gold, these are not destiny. They are leverage and it can lift nations or crush communities, depending on who holds it.

But today, that same pendulum is picking up speed across the African continent—from the copper belts of Zambia to the cobalt mines of the DRC.

We see two distinct models emerging:

1. The Sahel Model: In Mali and Burkina Faso, we see a ‘combative nationalism’ that echoes the Cold War—expropriations and the expulsion of Western forces.
2. The Solidarity Model: In Botswana and Ghana, we see a sophisticated ‘value-addition’ approach—renegotiating rough diamond shares and mandating local gold processing before export.

Under South Africa’s G20 presidency, the ‘Johannesburg Declaration’ has reframed critical minerals not as a security concern for the West, but as a driver for inclusive growth for the South. This is the Strategic Autonomy African countries are seeking. Many African states are rethinking extractives through “resource nationalism”, higher taxes, more state participation, more local ownership, more domestic processing. The intent can be right. But nationalism is not automatically inclusive. If the state is captured by elites, then “taking back control” can simply mean shifting the beneficiaries from foreign firms to domestic power networks while affected communities still lose land, livelihoods, and bargaining power. So the real test is not whether a policy sounds assertive. The test is whether it is transparent, enforceable, and publicly accountable.

The energy transition is raising the stakes

Now add the global rush for critical minerals cobalt, lithium, nickel, rare earths, driven by electric vehicles, renewables, and batteries. The world is building a cleaner future, but it may be doing so by intensifying old extractive patterns: land pressure, ecological damage, and unfair contracts, only this time with “green” branding. If the transition repeats the same injustice with a new label, it will carry a hidden cost: political resentment, unstable supply chains, and conflict. Most importantly communities must be treated as citizens with rights, not stakeholders to be managed.

Africa’s natural wealth is neither a panacea nor a Pandora’s box. It is a mirror. It reflects the quality of institutions and the honesty of politics. Where governance is strong, extraction can fund schools, clinics, and resilience. Where governance is weak, extraction funds inequality, instability, and disillusionment. So the next time someone says “Africa has so much wealth, why is it still poor?”, the answer is not buried under the ground. It is written above it: in contracts, courts, parliaments, and the everyday power to say no.

So today governance has become more important than slogans. Conferences and ESG reports have no meaning without clear agency. It requires transparent revenue-sharing and, above all, the institutional resilience to resist the ‘Resource Curse’ that turned Caracas from a city of the future into a warning for the present. So, Africa’s resource nationalism must be ‘smart,’ not just ‘radical.’ It must be built on the lessons of the past and  ensure that when we look back at 2026, we don’t see another pendulum swing toward collapse, but the moment the Global South finally claims its seat at the table of the stars.

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