There is a comforting story many wealthy countries still like to tell themselves. That they lead on climate. That they set ambition, create norms, and others follow. The latest data on global wind and solar quietly dismantles that story.

Yes, wind and solar are booming. The global pipeline has reached a staggering 4.9 terawatts. Almost five trillion watts of clean power is planned, under construction, or already being built. On paper, this looks like momentum. Like progress. Like the world inching closer to its promise to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

But look closer, and the centre of gravity has shifted. The countries doing most of the building today are not the ones with the deepest pockets. They are not the ones who dominate climate diplomacy. They are not the ones who speak most loudly about leadership at global summits. They are emerging economies.

China alone now accounts for half of the world’s wind and utility-scale solar projects under construction. Its operating wind and solar capacity has crossed 1.6 terawatts. Three times that of its closest peers. Brazil, India, the Philippines. All feature prominently in the global clean power pipeline.

Meanwhile, the G7. The world’s wealthiest club, controlling roughly half of global wealth. Their share of the future wind and solar pipeline stands at just 11 percent. Worse, it has barely moved since 2023.

This is not a data glitch. It is a political signal. For years, advanced economies argued that scale would come later. That early ambition mattered more than early deployment. That markets needed time, grids needed upgrades, voters needed persuasion.

Time has passed. Markets have matured. Costs have fallen. And yet, the pipeline in the richest economies remains stubbornly flat.

The contradiction is hard to ignore. These same countries continue to frame themselves as climate leaders. They set targets, issue declarations, and urge others to move faster. Yet when it comes to the most tangible metric of all. Projects planned. Projects built. Projects financed. They are no longer driving the transition. What is even more telling is where growth is happening within solar itself.

Distributed solar now accounts for roughly 42 percent of existing and prospective solar capacity globally. Rooftops, small installations, decentralised systems. These are not fringe solutions. They are central to the transition. They lower costs for households, improve energy access, and reduce pressure on grids.

And yet, distributed solar remains highly concentrated in a handful of countries. Even in wealthy economies where rooftop solar makes economic sense, deployment is constrained by slow permitting, weak grids, and a lack of storage investment.

This is where the debate often turns evasive. Advanced economies like to point to complexity. Grid congestion. Local opposition. Supply chain risks. All real challenges. But none are insurmountable, especially for countries with capital, institutions, and technical capacity. The uncomfortable truth is simpler.

The energy transition has stopped being a question of technology. It is now a question of political will. Emerging economies are building because they see clean power as infrastructure. As jobs. As energy security. As development. They are not waiting for perfect conditions. They are moving despite constraints.

Wealthy economies, by contrast, appear stuck in a cycle of caution. Over-regulated. Under-invested. And increasingly disconnected from their own rhetoric. This matters for more than optics. Global targets do not get met because some countries overperform. They get met because those with the greatest capacity to act actually do so. If even every planned wind and utility-scale solar project due by 2030 comes online, the world still falls short. By one terawatt of wind and 1.6 terawatts of solar.

In that gap sits the credibility of climate leadership. The next five years will decide whether the energy transition accelerates or plateaus. Whether clean power becomes the backbone of global growth, or a fragmented patchwork led by a few and talked about by many.

The data already tells us who is building the future. The question now is whether the world’s richest countries are willing to catch up. Or whether they are prepared to watch leadership, opportunity, and moral authority quietly slip away.

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