There was a time when India did not measure its success in quarterly numbers. It measured itself in knowledge, trust, shared prosperity and moral order. Long-run economic reconstructions—most prominently those of Angus Maddison and the ongoing Maddison Project—suggest that around 1 CE India accounted for roughly 30% of global output, and that for many centuries thereafter it remained above 20% of world GDP. By 1700, India was still one of the two largest economic powers on earth. By 1950, after centuries of conquest, extraction and structural disruption, that share had fallen to around 4% of global GDP.

History’s wheel had turned.

But history is not destiny.

Today, India stands at another inflection point. For the first time since the Industrial Revolution, technology offers a lever that can compress centuries of coordination into decades. Artificial intelligence, combined with India’s world-leading Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), gives us the opportunity not merely to grow—but to reclaim civilisational scale.

The question is not whether India can grow to $5 trillion or $10 trillion. The real question is whether India can rediscover the operating model that once made it central to the world economy—and update it for the AI age.

What Made High India High?

It is tempting to attribute India’s historical economic weight simply to population. That explanation is insufficient.

Large populations do not automatically produce global manufacturing leadership, educational magnets like Nalanda, or sophisticated Indian Ocean trade networks stretching from Southeast Asia to the Middle East.

What ancient India possessed was an operating model built on five pillars.

1. Trust as Infrastructure
Commerce flourishes when transaction costs are low. In pre-modern India, trust—anchored in dharma, guild codes and community reputation—reduced friction. Contracts were not merely legal documents; they were moral commitments.

In modern economic language, India possessed deep social capital.

2. Guilds as Proto-Institutions
The ancient śreṇi (guilds) were not just trade associations. They regulated quality, trained apprentices, resolved disputes and maintained collective reputation. They were, in effect, integrated industry bodies, skilling institutions and arbitration systems. They aligned self-interest with collective stability.

3. Temple-Centred Economic Stewardship
In many regions, temples functioned as custodians of land endowments, coordinators of irrigation systems, employers of artisans and service providers, and stabilisers of local demand. They anchored local economic ecosystems.
The temple was not merely spiritual architecture; it was institutional infrastructure.

4. Open Trade
India’s prosperity rested on exchange, not isolation. Merchant guilds operated across borders, incorporating foreign traders and integrating India into global trade circuits. Confidence—not protectionism—characterised high India.

5. Education as Strategic Asset
Institutions like Nalanda attracted scholars from across Asia. Knowledge was both an export and a source of domestic strength. Education was not peripheral; it was central. This combination—trust, coordination, institutional stewardship, openness and learning— sustained India’s prominence for centuries.

The Long Decline

The decline was gradual and structural.

Repeated conquests fractured institutional continuity. The Industrial Revolution dramatically shifted productivity balances toward Europe. Colonial policies reoriented production patterns and weakened indigenous industry. By the time independence arrived, India inherited not civilisational prosperity but deep poverty.
Independence restored political sovereignty. That alone was transformational. Yet rebuilding institutional depth is slower than regaining a flag.

India’s share of global GDP has since improved. But civilisational scale demands more than incremental gains. It demands structural transformation.

The New Lever: Digital Public Infrastructure

For the first time in history, a civilisation of 1.4 billion can build low-cost, high-trust coordination systems at population scale.
India’s Digital Public Infrastructure is precisely that.

 Aadhaar provides identity at near-universal coverage.
 UPI processes billions of transactions monthly, creating one of the world’s most seamless payment ecosystems.
 Open networks like ONDC aim to democratise digital commerce rather than centralise it.

This is not incremental digitisation.
It is institutional redesign.
In a profound sense, DPI is the modern equivalent of India’s historical institutional base layer. Where temples once anchored trust and guilds coordinated trade, DPI now provides identity, payment rails, data exchange and market access.

If designed with care, it can become the backbone of a new era of inclusive prosperity.

The SMART Indian Paradigm
To translate this opportunity into destiny, India must adopt a clear operating model for the AI age. I describe it as the SMART paradigm:

S — Sustainable Abundance
Growth that destroys ecological capital is self-defeating. India must lead in clean energy manufacturing, circular industry, regenerative agriculture and climate resilience. Sustainability is no longer moral posturing; it is strategic positioning.

M — Manufacturing 6.0
India must leapfrog into AI-native manufacturing—robotics, precision engineering, sensor rich production and clean mobility ecosystems. The goal is not low-cost assembly but high quality, globally trusted production.

A — Agentic AI for All
Artificial intelligence must become a productivity multiplier for every citizen—farmers, teachers, nurses, MSMEs, judges, auditors and entrepreneurs. AI cannot remain confined to elite clusters. It must be inclusive, multilingual and ethically governed.

R — Resilience by Design
Cybersecurity, climate shocks, supply chain disruptions—these are structural features of the 21st century. Resilience must be engineered into infrastructure, finance and governance.

T — Trust as the Ultimate Multiplier
Trust lowers capital costs, accelerates approvals, reduces litigation and attracts global partnerships. Transparent regulation, predictable enforcement and accountable institutions are economic assets—not bureaucratic luxuries.

Trust is the new GDP.
Updating the Civilisational Model
Ancient guilds coordinated quality; modern India must build open standards and interoperable digital networks.

Temple endowments stewarded wealth for collective purposes; modern India must design mission-locked capital for green infrastructure and social impact.

Nalanda drew global scholars; modern India must export knowledge platforms, digital governance models and AI tools.

The past is not to be romanticised—but it is to be understood.
India’s historical strength lay in its ability to align ethics with enterprise, openness with identity, and prosperity with participation.

The Choice Before Us
Artificial intelligence will amplify whatever values underpin it.
If driven solely by greed, it will magnify inequality.
If governed by fear, it will entrench control.
If guided by trust and inclusion, it can unlock unprecedented productivity and shared growth.
India’s advantage lies in its ability to combine scale with trust.
We have already demonstrated at population scale that identity and payments can function seamlessly. The next phase must extend this confidence into health, education, manufacturing, climate resilience and judicial efficiency.
The goal is not nostalgia for a bygone 30%.
The goal is to build a modern India that once again commands a significant share of global economic gravity—not through dominance, but through reliability; not through isolation, but through integration.
The 21st century will reward nations that can combine digital infrastructure, human capital and institutional trust.
India has the demographics.
India has the technology rails.
India has the entrepreneurial energy.
The final ingredient is alignment.
If we align technology with trust, growth with sustainability, and ambition with inclusion, India’s next ascent will not be accidental.
It will be civilisational.
And this time, it will be designed.

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