NEW DELHI: As Bihar heads to assembly elections on November 6 and 11, regional allies within both the National Democratic Alliance and the Mahagathbandhan are preparing to play decisive roles. While the BJP and JD(U) remain the dominant forces, smaller allies such as Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM), and Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) hold critical caste-based support bases that could influence close contests. On the other side, the Left parties, particularly the CPI(ML), are positioning themselves as a powerful voice within the opposition alliance.The state’s political landscape remains shaped by caste equations and coalition dynamics. The NDA’s seat-sharing deal saw BJP and JD(U) receive 101 seats each, while LJP (Ram Vilas) got 29, and both HAM(S) and RLM six each. Yet, murmurs of discontent have emerged, particularly within HAM, where leaders feel “undervalued.” Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan’s internal seat talks with the Left remain unresolved.For all four smaller parties, these elections are about survival, recognition, and bargaining power. Whether within the ruling alliance or the opposition bloc, each carries the weight of distinct caste identities and regional loyalties — crucial ingredients in Bihar’s complex political arithmetic.

Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM): Manjhi’s strategic muscle

Former chief minister and Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi continues to wield quiet influence in Bihar’s NDA. The 81-year-old leader, representing the Gaya Lok Sabha seat, commands significant support among Mahadalits, particularly the Musahar community. HAM has been allotted six seats under the NDA’s seat-sharing formula, though Manjhi had demanded 15.“It is true that we have secured fewer seats, the morale of our workers is weakened, and there is deep dissatisfaction among the workers,” Manjhi said on X. However, he added that “for the pride and honour of Biharis… the NDA will triumph, and Bihar’s honour will endure.”HAM has fielded Manjhi’s daughter-in-law Deepa Kumari from Imamganj and her mother Jyoti Devi from Barachatti, drawing criticism over dynastic politics. The party defended the move, noting both women were sitting MLAs with proven records. Despite limited seats, HAM’s Dalit outreach in Magadh — where it dominates six assembly segments — could prove crucial for the NDA in a tight race.

Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM): Kushwaha banks on OBC base

Former Union Minister Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM, another NDA ally with six seats, is counting on support from the non-Yadav OBC community, particularly the Kushwahas. In 2020, the party was part of the Mahagathbandhan but has since returned to the NDA fold.“The issue of seat allocation among NDA parties has been resolved through amicable discussions,” Kushwaha said, echoing the coalition’s unified message. His wife, Snehlata, has been fielded from Sasaram — a decision defended by party spokesperson Ram Pukar Sinha as “reflective of the people’s support for her candidature.”Despite losing the 2024 Lok Sabha election from Karakat — a setback blamed on BJP rebel Pawan Singh’s independent bid — Kushwaha remains a key player among Bihar’s non-Yadav OBCs, a group the NDA is keen to consolidate.

Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP): Sahni eyes bigger role

Mukesh Sahni, founder of the VIP and self-styled “Son of Mallah,” has fielded 11 candidates this time, mainly across Mithilanchal, seeking to revive his fortunes after a turbulent 2020. His party, targeting the state’s large Extremely Backward Class (EBC) vote bank, won three seats in 2020 but saw all its MLAs later defect to the BJP.This time, Sahni has declared his ambition to become deputy chief minister if the NDA returns to power. The EBC bloc, Bihar’s most populous, remains a crucial target group for both major alliances. Mithilanchal — where the BJP and JD(U) swept all seven Lok Sabha seats in 2024 — will again be a key battleground, and VIP’s performance could influence the Mahagathbandhan’s final tally.

CPI(ML): Left’s moral and electoral muscle

On the opposition side, the CPI(ML)-Liberation continues to assert itself within the Mahagathbandhan, demanding a greater seat share after its stellar 2020 showing. The Left bloc won 16 of 29 seats it contested in 2020, with CPI(ML) alone securing 12 of 19 — a 63% strike rate.“We have maintained the spirit of coalition. Although we deserved more seats this time, we finally decided to contest only 20 assembly segments,” said CPI(ML) general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya. CPI leader D Raja added, “Our party has a great history in Bihar and widespread presence… we should get reasonable number of seats.”As alliances settle their equations and campaigns intensify, these four smaller parties — HAM, RLM, VIP, and CPI(ML) — could once again emerge as decisive forces in a state where even a few thousand votes can determine who rules Patna.Also read: 10 seats that saw paper-thin victories last time