Iran’s hurt, but war isn’t going well for US, its Arab allies, and the rest of us. Numbers show the pain ahead 

What if this isn’t really a big war, but just a “little excursion,” like Donald Trump told Republican leaders on Monday? Almost like someone going on a short hunting trip. That might explain why Trump said the war could end “soon” because there is “almost nothing left” to attack. It also helps explain why the US actions in West Asia seem to have no clear plan.

On the first day, Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei was killed by an Israeli Blue Sparrow missile. This made peaceful talks impossible. On the same day, a US Tomahawk missile killed 150 people. Later it turned out they were schoolgirls because the information used for the attack was old.

Since then, things have not gone the way Trump and Israel’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu expected. The people of Iran did not rise up against their government, and the government did not fall. Instead, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, an important sea route for oil. This was not part of the plan. Iran also began attacking other Gulf countries, especially places that produce drinking water using desalination plants. Even after 13 days of fighting, Iran is still launching missiles and drones.

The longer the war goes on, the worse the problems become. In the United States, petrol is already about 20% more expensive. If the war continues, prices could rise even more. Iran has said oil could reach $200 per barrel, though that may be unlikely. About 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If oil supply drops, prices can quickly rise. Experts say even a small rise in energy prices can increase inflation and slow down the global economy.

The problems don’t stop with oil. Shipping insurance has become 4 to 6 times more expensive, and airplane fuel has doubled in price. When banks like the Federal Reserve raise interest rates to control inflation, the economy can slow down even more.

The blocked strait has also stopped the movement of about 30% of the world’s urea, which farmers need for crops, as well as important materials like sulphur, aluminium, and helium. Gulf countries cannot ship their oil, so they are shutting down oil wells, which can take weeks or months to restart.

Countries in the Gulf that support the US are being attacked, and their economies may grow very slowly this year. Some are even starting to wonder if they should keep relying on the US for protection.

Meanwhile, the US is spending almost $2 billion a day on weapons. Seventeen US bases in the region have been hit. Seven American soldiers have died and 140 have been injured.

All this raises an important question: what is the war really achieving? Many people believe Trump should think carefully and stop the fighting before things get worse.

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