NEW DELHI: On June 17, 2023, Hardeep Singh Nijjar — a Khalistani separatist designated as a terrorist by India — reportedly called his close associate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun to warn of what he described as a “serious threat” to his life. The conversation would later draw attention as investigators pieced together the final hours before his killing.The following day, Nijjar was shot dead by assailants in the parking lot of a gurdwara on the outskirts of Vancouver. Witness accounts cited in media reports said a white sedan pulled up, after which assailants approached and opened fire, discharging dozens of rounds before fleeing. The brazen nature of the attack quickly pushed the case beyond a local criminal investigation and into the realm of international scrutiny.In the weeks that followed, diplomatic ties between New Delhi and Ottawa came under strain after former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said authorities were examining allegations of a possible Indian link to the killing — a claim India rejected. Around the same period, US authorities disclosed they had disrupted what they described as a separate plot targeting Pannun. Acting on intelligence inputs, Czech police arrested Indian national Nikhil Gupta at Prague airport roughly a week after Nijjar’s death, setting off a parallel legal and diplomatic track.The US department of justice claimed that Gupta was involved in an alleged plot, directed by an employee of the Indian government, to target and assassinate Pannun. The DoJ also said that Gupta had links to international narcotics and weapons trafficking and was connected to Nijjar’s murder.India’s external intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing, came into the spotlight after authorities in both countries linked it to the alleged killing plots targeting Hardeep Singh Nijjar and Gurpatwant Singh Pannun.But what really happened? Was this a poorly executed covert operation, the act of a rogue operative, or an entirely different case with a third party at play?To understand this, the list of characters in the play must be known.

Hardeep Singh Nijjar

Gurpatwant Singh Pannun (“the Victim”)

Nikhil Gupta

Vikas Yadav

CS (Credible Source)

UC (Under Cover Agent)

How Gupta was caughtAccording to the US Department of Justice, Nikhil Gupta plotted the assassination of Pannun at the direction and coordination of Vikas Yadav — whom US authorities identified as an Indian government employee.“At the direction and coordination of an Indian government employee, Nikhil Gupta plotted to assassinate a United States citizen on American soil,” FBI Assistant Director in Charge James C Barnacle Jr said.According to the Second Superseding Indictment and statements made in court, Yadav was employed by the government of India’s Cabinet Secretariat, which houses India’s foreign intelligence service, the Research and Analysis Wing.“In or about May 2023, Yadav recruited Gupta to orchestrate the assassination of ‘the Victim’ in the United States,” the justice department said.At Yadav’s direction, Gupta contacted an individual he believed to be a criminal associate. That individual was, in fact, a confidential source working with the Drug Enforcement Administration.The confidential source introduced Gupta to a purported hitman who was actually a DEA undercover officer.“Yadav subsequently agreed, in dealings brokered by Gupta, to pay the UC $100,000 to murder the Victim,” the release said.“On or about June 9, 2023, Yadav and Gupta arranged for an associate to deliver $15,000 in cash to the UC as an advance payment for the murder,” it added.Gupta pleaded guilty on February 14 to federal charges and admitted to three counts: murder-for-hire, conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.India’s stanceA high-powered panel set up by the Centre in 2023 – formed after the US flagged activities of some organised criminal groups, terrorist organisations, and drug peddlers “who undermine the security interests of both India and the US” -claimed that Vikas Yadav had “criminal links” but insisted the episode was a “rogue” operation, denying state-sponsored intent.The ministry of external affairs has also reiterated that Yadav, who had served in the CRPF in the past, is no longer in government service.Did Vikas Yadav go rogue?Serving and retired officials at security agencies feel that the whole affair seemed to brazenly violate every rule in the book that even rookie interns at any agency across the globe wouldn’t.“Forget a senior – any mid-level officer in an agency in the know would have shut it down instantly given the number of red flags the whole thing generated,” a retired government officer told The Times of India.“Handlers never communicate directly with low-level criminal middlemen using traceable electronics. Yet, DoJ documents reveal that Yadav and Gupta exchanged routine messages on encrypted platforms that were clearly compromised,” the officer added.“In a real operation, a handler is a ghost; here, Yadav comes across as a digital pen pal. The ‘trap’ was not just visible; it was screaming.”On June 9, 2023, the conspirators arranged for an associate to hand over $15,000 in cash to the undercover agent in Manhattan. This, according to officials, was a “financial Op-Sec suicide.”Rather than going “dark” after Nijjar’s killing, Yadav allegedly sent Gupta a video of Nijjar’s bloodied body and a message stating that the New York target was now a “priority.”“By discussing an assassination so casually and explicitly linking the two hits, they surrendered all deniability and handed the DoJ the narrative of a transnational repression plot,” an official said.What now?Gupta is scheduled to be sentenced by US District Judge Victor Marrero on May 29, 2026, according to a joint statement by the FBI and DEA.By admitting to murder-for-hire and money laundering charges, Nikhil Gupta may have secured a reduction in the 40-year maximum sentence through an “acceptance of responsibility” credit.While the combined charges carry a maximum statutory punishment of 40 years in prison, a guilty plea typically triggers a reduction under federal sentencing guidelines.Gupta (54) may still have to serve around 80% of the awarded jail time. Under US law, if he receives a sentence longer than 12 months, he would be eligible for up to a 15% reduction for good behaviour while incarcerated.