Vinay Kumar
Nearly everyone expected this to be a short war. Not just those who started it, but also commodity markets.
Oil prices jumped around 10% when the conflict started, much less than the reaction when Russia attacked Ukraine. This is understandable: Iran exports only 1.5-1.8 of the 3.2mn barrels per day (mbpd) it produces, of which 80-90% are bought by China. Disruption to these volumes, if any, hits small in an otherwise oversupplied oil market: global demand is 105mbpd, of which around 48mbpd is traded globally.
Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
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