http://x.com/kurdX_/status/2027870508876697817

US & Israel’s attack may not free Iranians and, worst case, produce a West Asian crisis

In attacking Iran, Trump and Netanyahu may have crossed a line from confrontation into open defiance of what remains of international law. There is no credible legal framework that justifies a sweeping military campaign of this scale. No one with an ounce of sense will mourn the death of a brutal dictator like Khamenei. But that doesn’t put a legal pink ribbon on the war.  

Khamenei savagely crushed dissent whenever it surfaced. From the Iranian Green Movement to the 2022 uprising sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, the state’s answer was consistent: force, fear, and fatalities. Many Iranians feel terrified of and estranged from the leadership – brute authority grafted onto a society yearning to breathe. Sanctions, fuelled in part by Tehran’s incendiary rhetoric and regional adventurism, have punished citizens far more than the elite. Till now, the regime survived; the public paid the price.

But is that regime now ending? That’s the tricky question. Popular revulsion toward authoritarianism does not translate into tactical wisdom. Removing a regime by foreign force is a perilous gamble. Even if the clerical order collapses, what rises in its place is uncertain. Iran’s opposition is fragmented. Exiled figures such as Reza Pahlavi command diaspora sympathy but not much support inside Iran. Groups like Mojahedin-e-Khalq are a basket case themselves. Ethnic groups like Kurds and Balochs have their own agendas. 

Let’s not forget the Ayatollah regime cultivated a web of armed actors: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its Quds Force, Basij militia, and regional proxies such as Kata’ib Hezbollah and Ansar Allah. In a protracted conflict, these networks can ignite flashpoints across West Asia, turning a bilateral clash into regional chaos. In the first 36 hours of the conflict, Iran targeted Israel, put US military assets in the region in its crosshairs, and hit some installations in Bahrain, Qatar and UAE. The impact seemed limited. But what if Tehran’s warning of a great retaliation is borne out? 

Of course, for Washington and Jerusalem, the ideal outcome would be an internal recalibration – a pragmatic figure emerging from within the system to negotiate a reset. But that hinges on whether the Revolutionary Guard chooses survival through compromise or resistance through escalation. No one knows the answer to that right now. So, there’s a chance this confrontation could spiral fast – and ugly. That’s terrible news for the world and for India. Oil (the focus of our next comment) apart, there are 8mn Indians in Gulf. GOI has a tough job going forward.

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