Will he partner with Delhi in Dhaka’s interest?

This is the verdict New Delhi had quietly hoped for. A decisive mandate for BNP offers India the comfort of dealing with a familiar political formation. But familiarity is not reassurance – and that is where the comfort ends. The immediate question is whether Tarique Rahman, the presumptive prime minister, will recast BNP’s approach or revert to the tenor of 2001–2006, when India–Bangladesh ties sank to one of their lowest points. Here, the Jamaat factor adds uncertainty. A future alignment between the two parties cannot be ruled out; their grassroots networks, including student wings, have long worked in tandem. Such a partnership would severely complicate New Delhi’s calculations.

India’s interests in Bangladesh are clear and interlinked: transit, stability in the Northeast and security cooperation. Sheikh Hasina delivered on all three — granting transit access to the Northeast, acting against insurgent groups on Bangladeshi soil, and limiting Pakistan’s strategic space. If Tarique proves similarly attentive to these sensitivities, there is no structural reason bilateral relations cannot remain constructive. Economics offers another anchor. BNP has traditionally drawn support from business constituencies. Yet bilateral trade has suffered over the past 18 months amid political friction – a lose-lose outcome. Bangladesh needs India for connectivity and regional market access; India needs Bangladesh to advance its Act East policy. Geography, if not history, argues for pragmatism.

No doubt the Hasina factor will linger, but governing in reaction to the past would be shortsighted. Playing the China or Pakistan card may offer tactical leverage for Dhaka, but it would be strategically risky. India and Bangladesh share borders, rivers and intertwined destinies. If this is a post-Hasina Bangladesh, it is also a moment for India to recalibrate. What the moment demands is not nostalgia from India or score-settling by Bangladesh, but a pragmatic reset grounded in shared interests.

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