The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plays a pivotal role in the pursuit of climate change objectives, regardless of their current status or effectiveness. The collective commitment and efforts of all participating countries, as reflected in their individual NDCs, are essential in addressing the challenges posed by climate change. It is a widely accepted notion that the totality of these efforts carries significant weight in determining the future of our planet’s climate. Consequently, the declaration of an NDC transcends a mere formality or expression of intent; it represents a strategic framework for the country’s approach to economic growth and environmental stewardship. 

This announcement not only outlines specific targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions but also serves as a roadmap that influences the development of policies and initiatives aimed at sustainable growth. In this way, the NDC sets the course for a nation’s efforts in balancing economic aspirations with the urgent necessity of protecting our environment for future generations.

India has announced its third National Determined Contribution (NDC) for (2031-35) as an understanding for the Paris Climate Change Agreement 2016 submitted to UNFCC (United Nations Framework of Climate Change). Article 4 and paragraph 9 of the agreement provide that each party shall communicate the nationally determined contributions and that they do so every five years. India submitted its NDC for the first time in October 2015 for the period of 2030. 

Key highlights of the current NDC are as follows

• Commit to reducing the emission intensity of its GDP by 47% by 2025 from the 2005 level.
• To achieve a 60%cumulative electricity power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources.
• To create a carbon sink of 3.5 billion to 4 billion tonnes of CO2 either through forest and tree cover by 2035 from 2005 level.

The current Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) that India has presented is an extension and updated version of its previously submitted NDC to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Over the years, India has encountered various programming challenges; however, it has consistently demonstrated impressive progress in meeting and exceeding its climate goals. For example, India’s original targets included achieving a 33–35% reduction in emissions intensity by 2030 and increasing the share of non-fossil fuel power capacity to 40%(Emissions intensity measures the amount of Green House Gas released per unit of activity or output). Remarkably, these targets were not only met ahead of schedule but are also expected to be surpassed, showcasing India’s commitment to sustainable development. In addition to these achievements, India has made significant strides in enhancing its forest cover and increasing the number of trees.

 As reported through India’s status of Forest Report 2023, the country’s Forest and Tree cover now spans 827,357 square kilometres, covering 25.17% of the nation’s total land area. This includes 715,343 square kilometres (21.76%) of forest cover and 112,014 square kilometers (3.41%) of tree cover. This effort has contributed to creating a substantial carbon sink estimated to absorb between 2.5 and 3 billion tonnes of CO₂. Such initiatives play a critical role in both climate change adaptation and mitigation, highlighting India’s proactive approach to environmental sustainability and its dedication to combating climate change.

Overall, the accomplishments achieved by India in recent years emphasise the nation’s commitment to pursuing sustainable economic growth while being environmentally responsible. However, it is essential to address important questions regarding climate change targets, which involve not only the attainment of these targets but also the crucial objective of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial levels.

The Paris Agreement, which aims to unite global efforts in combating climate change, does not specify what baseline should be used for measuring this temperature target. In contrast, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employs a historical baseline from 1850 to 1900, a timeframe recognised as the earliest period for which reliable and comprehensive global temperature data is available. This discrepancy highlights the complexity of establishing a common reference point for climate action worldwide.

One of the significant factors complicating India’s climate targets is its consistent and robust GDP growth, currently ranging between 6% to 7% per year. This impressive economic expansion points to an increasing diversity of industries and an expanding economy, which inherently leads to a rise in emission intensity. As industries scale up operations and new sectors develop, the absolute volume of greenhouse gas emissions is likely to increase, even if India achieves its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets.

Thus, while India strives to meet its climate commitments, the ongoing economic growth creates challenges in controlling emissions. It emphasises the need for the country to explore innovative ways to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions, ensuring that development does not compromise its ecological obligations. While observing the government’s past interventions to mitigate the challenge of climate change in the last two years.

Various plans and policies have been implemented at national and regional levels to combat the pressing issue of climate change. Among the key initiatives is the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), which was launched in 2008. This plan outlines eight national missions aimed at promoting sustainable development while addressing the challenges posed by climate change.

One of the prominent missions stemming from the NAPCC is the National Solar Mission, which was initiated in 2010 and underwent revisions in 2015. This mission sets ambitious targets for expanding solar energy’s contribution to India’s overall energy mix, promoting the transition to clean energy sources. Another significant initiative is the National Green Hydrogen Mission, introduced in 2023, which aims to position India as a leader in the production and utilisation of green hydrogen, a critical component of future sustainable energy systems.

Additionally, the UJALA Scheme, launched in 2015, focuses on enhancing domestic lighting through the distribution of energy-efficient LED bulbs, significantly reducing electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The Energy Conservation Amendment Act of 2022 further supports these efforts by establishing a regulatory framework for energy conservation and promoting energy-efficient practices across various sectors.

The PM E-Drive Scheme (formerly known as FAME—Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles) is another crucial initiative aimed at accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles. This scheme promotes the development and manufacture of hybrid and electric vehicles, contributing to the reduction of air pollution and dependence on fossil fuels.

Moreover, the Green India Mission (GIM) focuses on enhancing ecosystem services and restoring degraded landscapes, while the Mangrove Initiative for Shoreline Habitats & Tangible Incomes (MISHTI), launched in 2023, targets the restoration of mangroves to protect coastlines and ensure the livelihoods of coastal communities.

Despite these comprehensive efforts at the domestic level, the challenge of climate change is becoming increasingly daunting. This situation arises not only from internal factors but also external influences that shape the efficacy of climate change targets. One of the primary challenges is facilitating technology transfer, which is essential for deploying climate-friendly interventions effectively, such as solar energy technologies. Additionally, the production of green hydrogen necessitates substantial financial investments and subsidies at the implementation level to be viable.

Furthermore, the full transition from coal-based power generation to alternative energy sources, such as natural gas or renewables, remains a significant hurdle. The current reliance on coal continues to create barriers to achieving clean energy goals, highlighting the need for comprehensive strategies that address both domestic production capabilities and external market dynamics. Technology transfer is also impeded by intellectual property rights, high licensing costs, i.e., critical boilers used in the coal-based plants are patent-protected, which costs highly to the private companies, and even the governments of several developing countries will take time to replace them because of the complexity involved.

Replacing boilers can typically cost between 100 million and 900 million, depending on various factors such as technical specifications, site conditions, regulatory requirements, and the complexity of integration. According to NITI Aayog, India currently has 192 operational power plants, 56 retired power plants, and 44 plants that are in development.

A few of the recommendations to attain the NDC in more meaningful ways could be as follows

• A sectoral decarbonisation roadmap for key industries such as steel, cement, aluminium, and chemicals is essential to achieve current and future climate targets.
• The expansion of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure in tier 2 and tier 3 cities will enhance last-mile connectivity and encourage consumers to choose fully electric options.
• City planning must incorporate a carbon intensity measurement factor, promoting nature-based solutions to address the heatwaves currently experienced in various Indian cities.
• An innovative climate finance mechanism is required with a clear-cut understanding to resolve the issue of IPR and licensing in technology transfer.
• The protection, improvement, and regeneration of mangrove ecosystems are crucial for increasing blue carbon sinks along the country’s 7,500 km coastline.
• Indian states should be encouraged to integrate some responsibilities of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) into their revised State Climate Action Plans, as these initiatives are currently primarily driven by the central government.

Overall, achieving meaningful progress in combating climate change will require a coordinated approach that combines policy initiatives, international collaboration, and innovative financing solutions.

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