Swiss Watch

If Switzerland becomes first nation to cap population, the real casualty will be globalisation

Switzerland will vote in an interesting referendum this Sunday. The question before voters is: should its population be capped at 10mn till 2050? It’s at 9mn now, and natural growth – total births minus total deaths – is a paltry 6,000 per year. There’s no chance of touching 10mn this way. But Switzerland is also an immigrant magnet. About 2mn immigrants have made it their home in just the past 25 years. Overall, they make up 27% of population. And this is the real trigger for the referendum. It’s a call from the political right, to preserve “Swissness”, and ease pressure on infra and housing.

Criticism of the referendum is along predictable lines. If it passes – opinion polls show it might – reduced immigration will hurt Swiss growth, especially when the native population is ageing fast. Basically, a reminder of economic reality. But Switzerland has been here before. In the 1960s, when native population and GDP were growing fast, trade unions – the political left – were crying ‘inforestieramento’ and ‘uberfremdung’ against excessive immigration. Their demands for a 500,000 cap on the number of immigrants had a role in immigration quotas for workers.

To outsiders, Swiss fears of pressure on housing and infra can seem exaggerated. The country has 9 rooms for 5 people, on average. Nobody hangs out of their trains. But quality of life is subjective. A lone passenger in an auto can seem wasteful to someone squeezed in with 5-6 others in a shared auto. So, how much space the Swiss want for themselves, and how ‘Swiss’ they want to remain, is their business. For us, the referendum is interesting mainly as a barometer of globalisation. With tariffs, Trump’s already shaken the global village. Sunday might bring another wakeup call, on an alphorn.