Pakistan is witnessing violent protests in Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (PoJK) for the second time within a year.

The protests are being led by the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), which comprises individuals from different political backgrounds and sections of society. A grassroots umbrella organisation that emerged in 2023.

The unrest had been building up for some time, and been initially driven by local socioeconomic demands. However, it has now evolved into a broader movement, primarily involving youth disillusioned with the current system of governance.

The state’s aggressive response has exacerbated matters. Instead of addressing the protesters’ grievances and attempting a political solution, the government chose to crack down, further fuelling public anger.

Blacking out the news on mainstream media does not stop information about the events from spreading on social media. But, as with all other internal issues of mis- governance in the
country, the authorities attributed the protests to a foreign conspiracy which is the easiest way to deflect the core issues.

They are also resorting to threatening statements hoping to put a lid on the protests. The authorities’ aggressive response to protests has therefore aggravated matters in PoJK.

As per reports several policemen and demonstrators were killed in the recent clashes, and the situation is still not under control, contrary to what Islamabad and the local authorities say. The region remained in the throes of a crippling shutter-down strike, which was punctuated by clashes between law enforcers and supporters of the JAAC.

The PoJK government has issued orders to initiating sedition proceedings against JAAC leaders Shaukat Nawaz Mir and Mehran Arshad Khawaja. A notification issued by the Home Department accused both leaders of committing “sedition
through their speeches, written material, videos and audios”.

Three years ago, the people of the region took to the streets to protest against the shortage of flour and high electricity tariffs. The situation was defused when the administration accepted the people’s demands, but other issues continued to simmer.

Discontent rose with growing unemployment among the youth, and political manipulation was alleged.

The protests in September/ October last year, compelled the government to negotiate with the protesters. Most of their demands were accepted, and the administration promised to implement them within 80 days.

These demands primarily focused on the provision of basic socioeconomic facilities. The government claims it has accepted most of the 38 points raised by the protesters, and both Islamabad and the PoJK government promised to address
the issue of reserved seats.

However, more than eight months later, no progress
has been made on this matter, with the simmering political discontent threatening to escalate.

In view of the impending 27 July elections the demand for abolishing reserved seats in the PoJK assembly is in focus as a large segment of the local people perceive that the government being run from outside.

Refugee Seats

A major sticking point is the call for the abolishment of the ‘refugee seats’, which have long been used by Islamabad to manipulate the political system.A flawed electoral system has long been used to install compliant administrations or unseat those that have fallen out of favour.

Under PoJK’s interim constitution of 1974, of the directly elected 53 seats, of which 20 are reserved seats, while 12 seats are reserved for refugees from Jammu and Kashmir, who settled in
mainland Pakistan after 1947. Off the balance eight seats of which five are reserved for women and one each for an ulema, technocrat and PoJK national residing abroad.

Six of these 12 seats are allocated for refugees from Jammu, and six are for refugees from the Kashmir Valley. Geographically, eight of the seats are for Kashmiris in Punjab, with the rest divided between Sindh, Balochistan, and KP.  If the refugee lives in PoJK, they are not eligible to contest these reserved seats.

JAAC alleges that these seats were often used by mainstream Pakistani political parties to influence the formation of governments in Muzaffarabad. There is no doubt that by this reservation Pakistan exercises extraordinary leverage over the
democratic process.

Furthermore, elections for these seats are not conducted by the PoJK Election Commission but by the Election Commission of Pakistan through the respective provincial administration, leaving no mechanism for accountability to the PoJK Election Commission. Those elected to these reserved seats often lack any genuine stake in the region, and the seats typically go to the ruling party in Islamabad.

Complaints of fraudulent voting for these seats have been persistent. In the current assembly, the residency certificates of four members out of the 12 are reported to be questionable, and investigations are ongoing in the courts.

Additionally, one member’s state subject certificate has been declared fake by the Supreme Court, which ordered action, but no measures have been taken. Despite such credentials, members elected to these reserved seats play a critical role in the formation of PoJK governments, with many becoming Ministers without any real connection to the region.

It is not surprising that whichever party is in power in Islamabad typically forms the government in PoJK and is unseated with the shifting power dynamics in Pakistan. This political manipulation is seen in the fact that the region has had four Prime Ministers since the 2021 elections.

That election was won by the PTI, which was also in power in Islamabad. The election of Faisal Mumtaz Rathore, the current Prime Minister, through a vote of no-confidence against his predecessor, followed the PPP’s consolidating its position after the defection of 10 PTI legislators. Without a floor-crossing rule,
horse-trading is the norm. The fact is that Pakistan controls the election apparatus and the regional parties are eclipsed, in the last election only one seat was won by Muslim Conference, a regional party as mainstream Pakistani parties are dominant. Hence, there is no regional challenge to Islamabad’s authority which is also a reason frustration amongst the locals.

The JAAC is calling for the abolition of the reserved seats, arguing that all seats in the legislature must go to those who actually reside in PoJK, and not those living in constituencies scattered across Pakistan. Last week, the PoJK Supreme Court upheld a reference filed by the PoJK government, stating that the provision of reserved seats could only be altered through a constitutional amendment. But can an assembly, a quarter whose
members are elected on reserved seats, make such changes?

Hence, when democratic recourse is closed off, the people have no choice but to fight for their rights.

Concerns Raised

Further, PoJK’s biggest asset is its strategic location which connects Pakistan to China and of course water which flows through the region to Pakistan. But revenue from both water and the highways including the CPEC which traverses through the region goes to Pakistan.

Human rights watchdog Amnesty International expressed concern over the violent and sweeping crackdown on protests including the internet shutdown, mass arbitrary arrests, and deadly use of force and called on the authorities to take immediate steps to deescalate the situation. The use of force could alienate the population in this region.

A group of more than 30 British MP’s led by Labour MP Imran Hussain, have written to UK Foreign Secretary expressing deep concern over reports of a communications blackout, arrests, and escalating tensions in PoJK. The letter, urged the British government to seek clarification from Pakistani authorities and
to use all appropriate diplomatic channels to encourage de-escalation and a peaceful resolution to the ongoing crisis.

However, the current crisis seems part of a deeper, long-running debate about governance, political representation, resource allocation and regional autonomy in PoJK. For example, the power produced by the Mangla Dam located in PoJK is sold to Punjab and other provinces. PoJK was not paid any water usage charges for the first 36 years , but since 2003 it is being paid one seventh of the water usage royalty as compared to the provinces of Pakistan and the electricity produced is “ exported” back to it at a much higher rate even though PoJK is the revenue source.

The refugee-seat issue may be the focal point of the present
unrest, but it is intertwined with wider grievances that have surfaced repeatedly over the past.

Conclusion

Today PoJK remains on edge due to its long festering grievances but the demand for dialogue is responded by deadly violence.

Unfortunately, Pakistan believes that by branding popular movements as undemocratic they will be able to suppress and silence dissenting voices. But repression and denial of rights is not the solution. There is no doubt that Pakistan needs to look inwards rather than pointing a finger towards India as far as their fault lines are concerned.

But Pakistan remains a land of contrasts with a public image hiding the realities. Today their Prime Minister and Chief of Defence Forces are seen on the world stage trying to mediate between Iran and the US while they continue to support terror from their soil.

While a former Prime Minister, once the most popular cricketer and amongst the most popular leaders in the country’s recent history is behind bars.

Imran Khan has been imprisoned for nearly three years. A court-appointed report submitted to the Supreme Court in February confirmed he has been kept in solitary confinement and now has just fifteen per cent vision in his right eye. Despite court orders granting twice-weekly visits, his family and party members
are routinely turned away at the gate.

In January, Imaan Mazari and her husband, fellow human rights lawyer Hadi Ali Chattha, were each sentenced to seventeen years for social media posts. They have defended the rights of countless people and are being targeted solely for their advocacy and work defending human rights in Pakistan.

In Balochistan, Dr Mahrang Baloch, who has spent years leading marches and asking only one question, ‘Where are the missing men?’, remains in custody on terrorism charges, bail denied, her petition now before the Supreme Court.

There is also the state of the economy as Pakistan is surviving on bailouts. This is the pulse of the present in Pakistan which needs to be highlighted. While it meanders from one crisis after another most of its own creation, it is time the countries that support Pakistan due to its unique geographical location smell the coffee.

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